Barack Obama’s Moment is 2008Randy Shawbyline‚ Nov. 20‚ 2006In the summer of 2003, Arnold Schwarzenegger faced a choice. He could seize the opportunity presented by the recall election against California Governor Gray Davis, or wait to run in 2006. He chose to seize the political moment. Had Schwarzenegger waited until 2006, he would not have been elected California’s Governor as a non-incumbent Republican. Barack Obama faces a similar choice about seeking the presidency in 2008. If he does not run, and a Democrat is elected, Obama’s presidential hopes are frozen until 2016. Obama would no longer be the next new thing, and another Democrat would have emerged as the Party’s fresh face. But if Obama does run in 2008, he puts none of his career aspirations at risk, as even a poor campaign would not jeopardize his 2010 Senate re-election campaign or a presidential race in 2012 or 2016. Based on this calculus, the only reason Obama would not run in 2008 is if he does not want to be President. |