Prediction: Obama Will Win the Iowa CaucusPaul Hogarthbyline‚ Jan. 02‚ 2008Every New Year’s Day, political pundits make predictions for what lies ahead in the next 12 months – and 2008 is no exception. But with the top 3 Democrats running neck-and-neck in Iowa, the only certainty is that the outcome tomorrow will be very close -- and nobody is bold enough to predict what will happen. I am ready, however, to say that Barack Obama will finish first, making him the front-runner for the presidential nomination. While various polls make the result just about anybody’s guess, the Des Moines Register’s final poll (which accurately predicted the outcome four years ago) has him ahead by seven points. Obama got a further boost yesterday when Dennis Kucinich formally asked his supporters to pick him as their second choice, and Joe Biden hinted that he might do the same. Pundits have long said that Obama would benefit the most from a very high turnout – and with the race so close, the field campaign so intense and the outcome so critical, voters will be coming out in droves. |