Obama Victory Sends Resounding Message of ChangePaul Hogarthbyline‚ Jan. 04‚ 2008Barack Obama’s victory in the Iowa caucus Thursday night sent a powerful message of change – as a record turnout (especially among young voters) picked him the winner with 38% of the total vote. John Edwards, who likewise ran a populist campaign that emphasized change, came in second place with 30%. When asked what was the most important factor in a candidate, voters picked “change” over “experience” by a 51-20 margin – giving Hillary Clinton's establishment campaign a humiliating 3rd place finish at 29%. Obama defied expectations by even beating Clinton among women and registered Democrats, which questions her viability as a candidate. But while Obama’s insurgent campaign has crystallized the message of change, the dirty little secret in presidential primaries is that the establishment always wins. As the fight moves to New Hampshire and other states, Obama’s campaign will have to defy historical precedent to dethrone the Clinton dynasty. I believe he can prevail, but it will be a different story for Mike Huckabee – who won last night’s Republican caucus. |