Obama Looks Good in California, But How Much Can He Cut Clinton’s Early Lead?Paul Hogarthbyline‚ Feb. 04‚ 2008Momentum for Barack Obama has reached a fever pitch – online, in the media and here on the streets of San Francisco. Having just spent the whole weekend volunteering for his campaign, I predict that Obama will win in the Bay Area. But the California primary is a totally different story. With Hillary Clinton’s projected lead among the early absentees, I’m starting to get a sense of déja vu with the 2003 San Francisco Mayor’s race – where the insurgent candidate (Matt Gonzalez) picked up huge support in the last couple weeks. Gavin Newsom, the establishment choice, won that election anyway because of the early absentees – which could likewise hand Clinton a victory. This time, however, the final outcome won’t end with tomorrow’s result. Obama doesn’t need to win California to keep the race going; he just needs to do well enough to keep it close. And right now, that’s a doable goal. |