Election Predictions: June 2008Randy Shawbyline‚ Jun. 02‚ 2008With California’s June 3 statewide election overshadowed by the Democratic presidential nomination fight, voter turnout—both in numbers and by constituencies—is harder than usual to predict. Early projections of a statewide turnout of around 40% may be overly optimistic, as even hotly contested races in San Francisco, Berkeley and Oakland have failed to excite voters. San Francisco voters will be primarily motivated by statewide initiatives Prop 98 and 99, the State Senate race, and two competing ballot initiatives regarding the future of Bayview-Hunters Point. East Bay voters have two very competitive races for the Assembly and State Senate, neither of which has generated much interest. The uncertain turnout, coupled with the absence of independent polling for most contests, adds to the challenge of predicting the outcomes. Here are my projections of the winners and losers on June 3. |