Blue Thoughts from a Red State: Kansas Election Preview

by Jesse Zerger Nathan, 2006-11-01

When people think of Kansas, they think Creationism and Fred Phelps. Or Pat Roberts and Todd Tiahrt. Ideologically blinded neo-conservatism, in other words. Which makes the state fertile ground for the shocking political earthquake that could emanate from the heartland outward come November 7. Long a Republican theocracy, Kansas first broke its red-state stereotype image by electing Kathleen Sebelius, a liberal, thinking, woman as its governor in 2003. Not only has she maintained her popularity and broadened the Democratic Party’s base, but also her confident, cool-headed policies have planted the seeds for a Democratic revolution.

With Republicans—many of them top-dog officials, at that—defecting to the Democratic party left and right, pundits and politicians of all stripes are bracing for the political winds of change that November is expected to bring—winds that may, in fact, signal the re-birth of the Democratic Party nationally. Tired of “debating whether Charles Darwin was right,” former Republican chair Mark Parkinson, for instance, left the Kansas GOP in June in search of a party that cared about issues that matter to people on an everyday level, not ideologically driven agendas concerned only with “abortion and gay rights.” After decades of rising Republican power beginning with Newt Gingerich in 1994 and culminating in the socially-conservative (fascist?) regime of Karl Rove and George Bush II, Democrats have more than a prayer this election season. The mood is summed up, in fact, by this fall’s Kansas Democratic slogan: “Hope in the Heartland.”

Where does such hope spring? Here are four key races to pay attention to next Tuesday.

Sebelius vs. Barnett

Obviously this is one to watch since its the gubernatorial battle. But it’s not much of a horse-race. In fact, Democrat Sebelius is beating Barnett so thoroughly right now that most of the electoral attention has shifted to tighter races like the one for the Attorney-General’s office.

Nonetheless, Sebelius has shocked GOP strategists nationwide by cracking a political holy grail of sorts and garnering bi-partisan support in a heavily Republican bastion like Kansas. The governor has successfully thrust her agenda—education, healthcare, jobs—into the fore of the Kansas political debate (despite having little cooperation from the small-minded GOP-controlled Kansas congress).

And meanwhile her approval rating has shot up to an all-time high of 68 percent. Even more impressive, she wooed former Republican chair Mark Parkinson (though he would likely say he needed very little wooing) to join her ticket. Polls show as little as an 11 percent or as much as a 20 percent margin of victory for Sebelius over Barnett. As sure as this victory seems, how badly Sebelius beats Barnett is going to be a barometer about how many of the other Democratic hopes end in success.

Boyda vs. Ryun

Though Boyda lost to neo-con veteran Ryun last time around, she has since re-fashioned her message and cut ties with the national Democratic Party. Boyda is gaining points for her boldness: in a recent on-air radio debate she lambasted Ryun for political trickery. “How dare you tell people I stand for amnesty?” Boyda said, blasting her former track-star opponent for misrepresenting her (somewhat liberal) position on immigration. “You are trying to put words in my mouth.” Her straight-talk stands in contrast to Ryun’s deceptively ideological conservatism, which he has masked this election cycle, calling himself a moderate.

Nonetheless, Ryun retains close connections with professional slime-ball Tom DeLay, and was ranked by the National Journal as one of America’s most conservative legislators. Recent polls show a race too close to call—and a victory for Boyda here would rock Republican confidence nationally.

McGinn vs. Tiahrt

Tiahrt is probably going to win this one. McGinn has made a valiant effort but Tiahrt was the proud recipient of a fresh, cookie-cutter district filled with solidly GOP votes after sneaky gerrymandering instituted by Newt Gingerich’s congress in 1994.

Representative Tiahrt is another quasi-fascist Kansan, opposed to just about anything sensible. He maintains absolutist positions on abortion rights, gay rights, environmental protections and, if it matters, the integrity of the Bible as the unerring, literal “Word of God.”

Though Tiahrt would like to make Kansas the Christian stronghold Karl Rove dreams it to be, he is unlikely to have much success this season outside of his suburban Wichita district, praise the Lord. And although Tiahrt is currently ahead, this is the Land of Oz and it’s been a wild fall (the Cards won the World Series, after all) so anything is possible.

Morrison vs. Kline

This is the one that really matters. Phill Kline has used his office as a platform for imposing a radically conservative agenda on good, hard-working Kansans. He’s pursued this path with such zealotry, in fact, that he drove former Republican Paul Morrison to run against him—as a Democrat.

Like so many disillusioned Republicans, Morrison grew exhausted with Kline’s desire to take power and run with it—in a direction that is, at worst, exactly opposite to the needs of the people in Kansas. Kline, who won by the slightest of margins last time around, is losing the race in all the latest polls (except his own), but things are so close that this one too will come down to the final ballots. Last week, former Kansas AG (and staunch Republican) Bob Stephan joined a chorus of damning critics ridiculing Kline for everything from his fundraising tactics (Kline has used church pulpits as political tools) to his deranged attempt to undermine the privacy of women by forcing abortion clinics to turn over records for irrelevant reasons. Kline must go, and this is the one race that will determine whether the Kansas Democratic revolution took place this November or not.

Stay tuned, folks. It’s never been a better time to be blue-thinker in red-state Kansas. These are momentous times—maybe.