Obama Looks Good in California, But How Much Can He Cut Clinton’s Early Lead?

by Paul Hogarth, 2008-02-04

Momentum for Barack Obama has reached a fever pitch – online, in the media and here on the streets of San Francisco. Having just spent the whole weekend volunteering for his campaign, I predict that Obama will win in the Bay Area. But the California primary is a totally different story. With Hillary Clinton’s projected lead among the early absentees, I’m starting to get a sense of déja vu with the 2003 San Francisco Mayor’s race – where the insurgent candidate (Matt Gonzalez) picked up huge support in the last couple weeks. Gavin Newsom, the establishment choice, won that election anyway because of the early absentees – which could likewise hand Clinton a victory. This time, however, the final outcome won’t end with tomorrow’s result. Obama doesn’t need to win California to keep the race going; he just needs to do well enough to keep it close. And right now, that’s a doable goal.

On Saturday morning, hundreds of Obama precinct captains and volunteers packed the auditorium of Everett Middle School for a pep rally with John Kerry. The ex-Democratic nominee isn’t known for giving fiery speeches, but he more than compensated when he arrived – over an hour late – and got the room worked up. The crowd was a mixture of campaign veterans from progressive San Francisco politics, along with the many new faces who have never been involved before. Despite the rainy weather, volunteers left the rally with their precinct assignments to go canvass – with good reports by day’s end.

That night – as they have done every night for weeks – volunteers in the campaign office at Market & Laguna made phone calls to undecided voters. Long before the campaign gave resources to open up an office, local Obama organizers at the grassroots level have been making voter contacts. Right now, one emphasis among phone-bankers is to reach Decline-to-State voters (who strongly lean Democratic in California elections) and let them know they can vote in the Democratic primary. With Obama’s decisive lead with unaffiliated voters, he should do well if enough turn out and pick a Democratic ballot.

Yesterday was the Super Bowl, so phoning was kept to a minimum – but volunteers went around town to do visibility at certain intersections, as well as “pub crawls” throughout the City. At the 24th and Mission BART station, volunteers did outreach in Spanish to passersby – competing with a Hillary Clinton campaigner at the street corner. Randy Shaw questions today if Clinton will really get such a lopsided margin of the Latino vote in California as the polls suggest (even those that show a narrow Obama edge statewide.) At 24th and Mission, Latinos were split about 50-50 between each candidate.

Obama partisans gleefully following the recent media coverage should take note that many California voters are permanent absentee – and many turned in their ballots long before Obama’s numbers started to rise. These votes are unaffected by Ted Kennedy’s endorsement, John Edwards dropping out, or Maria Shriver’s surprise visit to an Obama campaign rally yesterday where she announced her support. One factor why Clinton did so well in Florida’s (illegally scheduled) primary was that a substantial portion of voters mailed in their ballots – long before Obama’s victory in South Carolina.

As John Nichols writes for The Nation, tomorrow’s Super Tuesday results will not be an accurate portrayal of current voter sentiment – as the early voting will warp the results. Don’t expect Obama to win California, though there is palpable momentum on his side. Clinton is still the establishment candidate, and Obama will need to translate the positive news events into more volunteers to reach more voters to make the difference.

In every presidential election cycle since 1992, candidates in both parties have clinched the nomination by Super Tuesday – due to simply overwhelming the opposition with vast resources and establishment ties. But this year – at least on the Democratic side – it is not likely to happen. And if Obama can force the results in 22 states to a close parity in the delegate count, the race will go on to other states. Most observers agree that the post-February 5th schedule of states looks good for Obama.

As voters become more familiar with Obama, they are more likely to support him over an establishment candidate with far superior name recognition. What he just needs now in California over the next 48 hours is more volunteers to make a strong finish.