Newsom Early Favorite in 2010 Governor’s Race

by Randy Shaw, 2008-04-29

Although California’s 2010 Democratic gubernatorial primary is nearly two years away, there is considerable interest in this race. I wrote back in November that San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom would be “looking to burnish his statewide credentials” in anticipation of running for Governor. To this end, Newsom has relentlessly touted his “green” agenda, widely promoted the city’s universal health care plan, and sought to preempt a city budget crisis that would undermine his financial management credentials. He has also aggressively campaigned for Hillary Clinton, a move that will not pay dividends in an Obama Administration but will help him secure endorsements and money for the governor’s race. With Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa increasingly unlikely to run for governor, Newsom might only have to defeat Jerry Brown and Steve Westly to secure the nomination.

Gavin Newsom is a very unusual politician. Although he lacks passionate supporters and close, fervent allies in San Francisco, he has combined an effective public presentation and a savvy prioritization of issues to create an extremely sellable statewide image.

Riding the Green Wave

No politician is more consumed with green issues than Mayor Newsom. Never does a week pass without a mayoral press release and/or media event touting some new local environmental “breakthrough.”

Newsom wants to run for Governor as the Mayor that created the greenest of cities. While his pursuit of all things green has resulted in excessive staff devoted to the issue, and to the state’s most personnel-heavy Department of the Environment, Newsom’s identification as a Green Mayor will pay dividends in 2010.

A great advantage of running on a green platform is that it does not reduce financial contributions from large real estate developers, who are happy to make their luxury accommodations satisfy LEED standards. In fact, even renowned polluters like Waste Management, Inc. now claim to be “green” businesses.

California Democrats love backing candidates who talk in terms of energy sufficiency and reducing our carbon footprint. Newsom has genuine passion for green issues, and his identification with making San Francisco the greenest of cities will help ride him to success in 2010.

Jerry Brown was California’s first environmentally conscious governor, but his record in Oakland fell far short of his plans to create a “green” city. In fact, Brown is now more identified with developers than recyclers, and his track record comes nowhere close to Newsom’s on this critical issue.

Healthy San Francisco

The composition of the 9th Circuit Court of Appeal judicial panel hearing the challenge to San Francisco’s universal health care law means that the measure is likely to be upheld after being struck down by a District judge. Newsom will be all over the airwaves when the ruling is announced, solidifying his identification with the politically potent health care issue.

Unless the federal government enacts a health care measure in 2009 that preempts state plans, Newsom will be the only candidate for Governor who can claim to have expanded health care for tens of thousands. And he is positioned to put forth his own state plan, which, as in his greening proposals, will be based on San Francisco’s successful model.

Financial Management

Newsom is taking an unusually tough line on the city’s budget deficit to avoid being accused of financial mismanagement in the governor’s race. He is already using the proposed housing set aside for November to attack any future such guaranteed funding restrictions; this helps insulate the mayor from criticism over his past support for set-asides.

While Newsom has benefited from the city’s economic good times, Jerry Brown faces questions about excessive overtime and lax accounting during his tenure as Oakland mayor. Ironically, the San Francisco Chronicle did not discover this problem until it was aggressively seeking to discredit current Oakland Mayor Ron Dellums, but the problem was Brown’s.

As Chronicle columnist Chip Johnson stated on April 11, 2008, “between 2003 and 2005, [ex-Oakland City Controller Larae] Brown found more than 950 city employees who were paid 22,000 hours for time they never worked.” Equally troubling, is that “in her review, she discovered the city's cash balance was overstated by $172 million and 77 of 111 city accounts showed negative fund balance.”

Good luck with Jerry Brown explaining this to voters. Particularly given California’s longstanding budget problems that the next Governor will have to address.

Newsom’s Weak Competition

Other than former Governor Brown, the only major obstacles to Newsom’s election (no Republican will win in 2010) are Steve Westly and Antonio Villaraigosa.

If Westly could not defeat Phil Angelides, he has no chance against Gavin Newsom. Instead of running for governor, Westly should get some appointment in the Obama Administration.

I wrote in November 2005 that Newsom would face an uphill battle against Los Angeles Mayor Villaraigosa in a 2010 primary for governor, but since that time a variety of circumstances -- among them are Villaraigosa's affair with a news reporter and conflict with the city’s teachers union -- have reduced the chances that the charismatic Latino will enter the race.

Villaraigosa would have to start his governor’s campaign almost immediately after winning re-election as mayor in 2009. He will likely have to pledge not to seek higher office during his second term, and while he broke a similar pledge to run for mayor in 2005, Los Angeles has too many problems for him to abandon the city for a statewide run in 2010.

Villaraigosa can probably do more for the constituencies he cares most about by being an effective Los Angeles Mayor than by being elected Governor. Los Angeles has so many longstanding problems around schools, transportation, housing and health care that a mayor who makes meaningful progress can write his own ticket to higher office.

Unlike Newsom, who inherited a healthy economy and a pretty well run city from Willie Brown, Villaraigosa faces a slowing economy in one of the most challenging cities in the nation. He can run for Governor or Senator after he proves his success in Los Angeles, and will likely pass the race in 2010.

So despite Newsom’s ongoing disengagement from many San Francisco issues and constituencies, and despite his lacking a fervent base -- few tears will be shed locally when he moves on to Sacramento -- he stands the best chance of being our next Governor.

And the great irony is that so many of the accomplishments Newsom will run on were driven by the progressives the mayor has long scorned.