Obama-McCain Debate Sept. 26: The Republican’s Last Chance?

by Randy Shaw, 2008-09-22

John McCain heads into the first presidential debate this Friday desperately seeking momentum. After a post-Convention bounce that stunned pundits and left some Obama supporters fearing defeat, greater public exposure to Sarah Palin and McCain’s ill-advised claim that “the fundamentals of the economy are strong” in response to last week’s financial meltdown has left the GOP ticket in deep trouble. The McCain campaign needs a “game changer,” and Friday’s night’s debate would seem to offer the best opportunity. But elections for nearly fifty years show that, contrary to popular belief, presidential debates rarely impact the outcome. And John McCain has not only proven a less than powerful debater, but if pressed on Friday night to explain his constantly switching positions on such issues as immigration, economic regulation, and tax cuts for the wealthy, the debate could leave his candidacy even worse off.

Conventional wisdom says that the contours of the presidential race are not set until after the first debate. If true, Friday night’s debate likely represents John McCain’s best and perhaps last chance to regain momentum in this race.

Debates are not “Game-Changers”

Ever since the Kennedy-Nixon debate in 1960, prevailing wisdom is that presidential debates can meaningfully impact the outcome. Yet other than that fabled debate (in which television viewers and radio listeners disagreed on the winner), one is hard-pressed to find a single campaign where a presidential debate affected the outcome.

The best example is the 1976 debate between President Gerald Ford and Democratic nominee Jimmy Carter, when the Republican momentarily forgot that Eastern Europe was under the Soviet Union’s control. Carter won narrowly, but this outcome was more attributable to Watergate and to the Democrat carrying his home region of the South than to the debate gaffe.

Ronald Reagan’s closing line in his 1980 debate with Carter, “are you better off now than you were four years ago?” was a brilliant question, but it did not decide the election. Carter decided that election by alienating the Democratic base, and then boycotting the 1980 Olympics—which deprived him from benefiting from the event’s patriotic outpourings. Reagan’s debate line was so effective because it crystallized existing attitudes.

Walter Mondale destroyed Reagan in the first 1984 debate, leaving many wondering whether the President had the early stages of Alzheimer’s (Reagan was diagnosed as having Alzheimer’s after leaving office). But Reagan was far ahead in the polls, and even though Mondale beat him almost as badly in the second debate, the media felt obligated to claim the President had fought to a draw—Mondale’s two debate victories won him a total of one state in the November election.

The 1988 election featured the infamous opening second debate question posed to Democrat Michael Dukakis, "if [your wife] Kitty Dukakis were raped and murdered, would you favor an irrevocable death penalty for the killer?" Dukakis’s unemotional response—he cited crime bills he had backed—helped cement a defeat primarily caused by his campaign’s incompetence.

One often reads that Al Gore lost the 2000 election because he was “arrogant” in his 2000 debates with George W. Bush. The media certainly spun it that way, but Gore won that election, and there is no evidence that its closeness was attributable to the debates.

Finally, John Kerry handily won all three debates with Bush in 2004, with the first debate perhaps being the most one-sided ever. This had a major impact in galvanizing the Democratic base, and likely made the election as close as it was. But Kerry’s debate victories did not change the outcome.

Pre-Debate Analysis

John McCain is not a strong public speaker. But he will be answering questions in front of a podium Friday night, which is his most effective format (those who say he is great in town hall meetings must have missed his dismal performances in that forum).

Barack Obama has not been a strong debater. Blame part of this on his seeking to avoid being perceived as “attacking” Hillary Clinton. But Obama also has a tendency to come off much too cool, failing to display the passion and fighting spirit that he demonstrates at public events.

But the “too cool” Barack Obama may be gone. He has been replaced by an Obama campaigning like a man on a mission, using the populist rhetoric that Democrats from Dukakis to Kerry usually save for the campaign’s last weeks.

After showing a clip of a fiery Obama vowing to “fight for the American people” in Nevada last week, Hardball’s Chris Matthews appeared stunned. He turned to his guests and said “Wow, where has that guy been the past months?”

An animated and feisty Obama will make it hard for McCain to score points. And the Republican runs the real risk of looking a step slow in contrast to his high-powered opponent.

Jim Lehrer of PBS is the sole host of the September 26 debate, which is good and bad news for McCain. It is good news because Lehrer will not press McCain to explain his flip-flopping on several key issues. The bad news is Lehrer is also unlikely to put Obama on the defensive, or pressure the Democrat into saying something that pundit’s can jump on after the debate.

Despite the nation’s focus on the economic crisis, the first debate will focus on foreign policy and national security. This is McCain’s strong suit, but his ability to capitalize may be impeded by polls showing a sharp decline in voter interest in these areas.

Expect McCain to stress that he was “right” about the surge, and to cite Obama’s recent statement to Bill O’Reilly that the tactic worked “beyond my expectations.” Obama will likely emphasize the social and economic costs of the Iraq War, and the need to redirect money to the problems at home.

Obama will be looking for any chance he can get to repeat all those great punch lines he used last week to show how McCain long supported the deregulatory policies that created the economic crisis. Given how the economic crisis is dominating the news, Lehrer is going to have to get into the issue, regardless of the agreed upon focus.

If McCain cannot regain momentum following a debate on national security and foreign policy, the race is over. That’s why Obama will spend three days preparing for the debate, and why the McCain campaign hopes to defy history by making this debate an outcome changer.

Randy Shaw is the editor of Beyond Chron and the author of the newly released, Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century (UC Press.)